The Iran Conflict. The Strait Of Hormuz & The Oil Supply.

Now that you know a little bit about me, you will know I have served in the RAF and that I was a senior manager when working, which needed a reasonable amount of organisation skills, so by many standards I’ve done okay. However, I’m not sure I could organise a war, though I’d give it a go if called upon, King and Country and all that, but as I probably couldn’t, that is why we have high-flying leaders in the armed forces.

So, I think it’s fair to assume these high flyers know what they are doing, and the same applies to any country with armed forces, especially the major powers in the world. However, with recent events with Iran and the news reports we are seeing and hearing, it did get me thinking about one major fact of the conflict from quite an early stage. It is the Strait of Hormuz, and why it is closed, or closed as the press is telling us. Maybe it’s restricted traffic, reduced, minimal, or maybe it’s okay as far as the usual numbers passing are concerned. Will we ever know? According to some online reports, it’s closed. So, for the sake of this post, let’s say it’s closed.

(At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 21 miles wide, and the USA needs help to defend it, or maybe not. It’s probably the 1600-1800 miles of coastline that Iran has. Though you would think the USA could take care of any naval bases along that coastline.)

"Strait of Hormuz-svg-en" by Goran_tek-en is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

When the war first started and it was reported that the Strait was closed, my immediate reaction was to think that Trump and his people had not thought this one through. Why would you attack a country that could maybe control one of the world’s most important shipping routes, or should I say attack that country, without having a plan to secure that route?

Then I did some research, and there was one thing I noticed. First of all, China receives over 35% of all oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the most of any country. And that equates to 45% of all China’s oil. And I thought. ‘Do you know what? Mr Trump is in fact a clever man.’ Was part of the plan to stop China from receiving that oil and, potentially, maybe, probably, cause the country problems. Let’s be honest, I doubt Trump will ever be on Xi Jinping, the President of China's, Christmas card list – will he?

Let’s look closer to home. Only about 4% of oil coming through the Strait comes to Europe, never mind the UK, so why would Europe get involved in a war that was started by the USA & Israel with little communication or agreements and which does not really affect their oil supply? The war isn’t legal (please read on) so why are the USA trying to involve us, or dare I mention the word 'Trump?’

Before the conflict started, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait, and approximately only 760-800,000 of those barrels came to Europe, never mind the UK. As hard as I researched - remember I’m a bit of an amateur, I cannot break this down further by individual European country, but if that small amount comes to Europe, and a smaller amount then goes to each European country, why are we being asked to defend the Strait? It is not worth our oil supply or, more importantly, the lives of our Navy personnel.

However, the UK’s problem could be this, and remember who we are dealing with here, but these are our oil importing numbers:

United States - 37% (approx. 16.2 million metric tons).

Norway - 31% (approx. 13.5 million metric tons).

There are many other countries involved with the supply of oil to our country, but it’s number one I really need to point out, considering the threats and bullying tactics!

Mr Trump is now seemingly calling on other nations, including the UK, to help in the strait after Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks by using their various weapons, which news reports tell us are drones, missiles, and mines, which has ‌closed the Strait for ships that normally transport up to a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas through this route.

Many NATO countries seem to be conscious of upsetting Trump, though I don’t know why; in my opinion, he seems to want to control everyone, and he has already threatened NATO countries with repercussions if they don’t help his cause!  But other countries do not want to get involved, and that is their choice, not Trump’s. However, go back to our number one source for oil. If the UK is doing that, how many other European nations are relying on the USA for oil, and how many could be hurt if he decided to cut that flow of oil? Could that be a background threat?

But then if he did that, how much would he hurt the US oil industry, which I doubt even he could ever get away with? But it’s a never-ending circle of questions, supply, demand, threats and counter threats, and submission, and a world I would never want to be involved in. Where’s 007 when we need him?

(The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) is one of the world's largest pipeline systems. The pipeline itself, which is known as the Alaska pipeline, is an 800-mile pipeline that ships oil from Prudhoe Bay, in Alaska, to Valdez, on the shores of Prince William Sound in south central Alaska. The crude oil pipeline is privately owned by the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company)

Research tells us that German ​Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, ‘this is not our war; we have not started it.’ Another German government spokesman has said, ‘the conflict has nothing to do with NATO, and Germany ​has no plans to be drawn into it, and that neither the United States nor Israel consulted us before the war.’

And this goes back to my original thoughts on the war, which are that surely this is a major part of the planning before starting a conflict with Iran, but from what I read it’s not the case, or he wouldn’t be threatening NATO and asking for help - would he? But if this had been part of the plan, why does the second biggest navy in the world, with its 440 ships, need the help of the UK – approx. 63 ships. Or Germany – approx. 70 ships. Or Italy – many more with approx. 200 ships; therefore, three countries totaling approx. 330 ships, and still less than the 440 that the USA has available. Where are all their own ships when they declare war? Why does he need NATO?

Maybe more importantly, as the Germans have said, neither the USA nor Israel consulted them before initiating their attacks and starting a war that could last many months. If they didn’t inform Germany, how many other NATO countries did they not consult with?

I have mentioned that I try to think logically, and if those two countries didn’t consult others beforehand, then surely you don’t go asking for help afterwards and when you need it because you reacted too quickly with poor planning, as that is how I see it! Let’s be honest, we will never know, will we, but to me it doesn’t quite make sense – does it?

The other point I would like to mention is I keep hearing, and assume you do too, about the war being ‘legal.’ Well, my reaction to that is, what war is or has been legal? Surely invading any country is an illegal act, and again I rely on an online search to find this:

A war becomes legally permissible under international law primarily through authorisation by the UN Security Council (UNSC) or via self-defence, as outlined in the UN Charter.

So, there we have it. The UNSC is run by people (obviously,) and they decide when a war is legal or not, so does that mean a decision could be made depending on people's emotions and political or ethical opinions? So obviously people still decide what is and what is not legal, but what makes them right (or wrong?) Well, they couldn’t use AI, could they?

But what about self-defense? That is also a legal war, but surely the war is illegal by the country invading in the first place, so a self-defense war is, in fact, an illegal war to start with. I don’t know, and I’m often glad I don’t know, but as also mentioned, it’s good to discuss these things and try to give our opinions and get those of others out in the open.

And here I am, some 24 hours after starting to write this, and today’s news headlines are that Trump doesn’t need help to open or defend the Strait, but NATO countries are making ‘a foolish mistake’ by not helping to reopen the shipping line! So now do we go back to how much we get from the USA, because according to an online search, in 2024, 38.6% of the UK's crude oil and natural gas liquid imports come from the USA. Imagine if we lost that because someone took the hump? (Theres a rhyme in there somewhere!)

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Thanks for reading

‍DJ

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